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I also attended the AIA Executive Board meetings. I will be posting my comments about it on this thread on the 24-7 Football boards:
Feb 22, 2012
From my BLOG on this issue:
John Carrieres (much more at link)
Mark Heller (of the Tribune) called me back Monday (Jan 30) after having delivered my report to the AIA, and I expected to be relieved of the burden I had felt since finding the problem. I expected the AIA to acknowledge a flaw and investigate a fix for it. Would anyone expect otherwise? However, early in that conversation Heller said, “Well, the story isn’t dead yet, but….,” and my heart sank.
My impression from the small amount of detail I received from Heller was that Bolitho and Schmidt played a very heavy card and increased his uncertainty as to whether the error was real. In fact, the AIA was adamant that there was no error or flaw in the formula. Most know that I have been active in Power Rankings for a number of years. It is also probably clear that the AIA was very familiar with me due to my mostly one sided correspondence with them.
The fact that the AIA rendered such a strong verdict to Mark Heller as to the validity of my finding within a couple of hours simply astonished me. In fact, the AIA’s response seemed almost pre-determined.
To me, their response was so unreasonable that it made me beg the question, “HOW LONG HAVE THEY KNOWN ABOUT THIS?” It simply didn’t make any sense that two of the top AIA representatives felt such urgency to squash a legitimate and credible issue unless the problem was already well understood and was being hushed. However, after the story started building momentum I had a change of heart in this belief.
As the story unfolded, these AIA officers didn’t seem to have a clue what was going on in the formula itself and resorted to blaming a committee. From an outside point of view, it seemed they were having a hard time understanding and figuring out the problem, even with a map to it. That almost made me more uncomfortable than if they had actually known about it and were simply trying to hide it until a change could be made later in the year.
Isn’t this the same group that developed the program for geographic scheduling? There would be an algorithm in that program to select appropriate school matchups. Is it right? Many would probably say no…but the AIA's response would probably be that it was approved by the Executive Board and so it must be correct.
Schmidt told the Tribune in that posted article that “he has not done enough research to figure out if there is a flaw.” Apparently Schmidt had done only enough research to loudly proclaim that there was NOT a flaw.
Bolitho continued today to argue that the strength of schedule is what boosted the rankings of the tournament teams who lost in the first round, not a flaw in the formula. It is SCARY that Bolitho (the AIA's Power Points program manager) STILL apparently doesn't understand the FLAW in the formula. It simply does NOT bode well for the future of Power Rankings, geographical scheduling, or any other AIA number crunching such as their accounting practices or their stat keeping.
Feb 14, 2012
Somewhat obscured by all the "watching of the existing section playoffs" is this issue: there may have been teams that missed the section playoffs because the existing flawed formula was used to determine which teams qualified for those.
I haven't even checked that...partly because it is water-under-the-bridge. But, I did check soccer's, and teams did miss the playoffs because of it.Feb 8, 2012
I have been posting on this topic at the scout.com 24-7 Football forums. Here is a link to the "primary" thread:
John CarrieresFeb 8, 2012
It was updated yesterdayFeb 6, 2012
Coach P...I plead guilty to defending the flawed PPT formula.Feb 5, 2012
This is a heavily redacted version of the document that was sent to the AIA. A couple sections have been deleted and a few comments/notes have been deleted as well. There has been no changes or alterations to it besides that.
If I produced this document now, it would be somewhat different. Everything in the document is correct, but I have a better understanding of the total picture now and could better articulate the issue.
I have been posting further status updates on this thread:
John CarrieresFeb 5, 2012
I have sent the Tribune an updated version of the document that describes the AIA Formula Flaw. It now includes a section on how to fix the AIA formula. It contains several new examples as well.
I hope they will post it soon.
John CarrieresFeb 5, 2012
I have sent the Tribune an updated version of this document that now includes a section on how to fix the flawed AIA formula. It contains several new examples as well.Feb 5, 2012
I must give credit to my wife for this document...she is a math teacher at a local high school.
John CarrieresFeb 4, 2012