It's tempting to think that if we just elect the right people next week, the clouds will part, the sun will break through and everything will be fine again. But it's not that simple. Whoever is president the next four years will face daunting problems. We've dug some big holes for ourselves.
For starters, the federal debt can't be ignored much longer. It has now surpassed the level of our total GDP, a truly Greek "accomplishment”. It’s the result of feckless leadership and a feeble economy that can't come close to satisfying the demands of the modern welfare state. But, to paraphrase Margaret Thatcher, we're running out of other people's money to spend. Like families, businesses and governments that overspend and get in trouble, we're going to have to go through an uncomfortable work-out of our debt.
But here's where it gets tricky. The most effective way to generate more government revenue is through economic growth. Yet the usual austerity measures employed to reduce debt – spending cuts and especially tax increases – work against expansion. The next president will have to inspire confidence in both consumers and businesses, while reducing the foreboding cloud of uncertainty hanging over the economy. Getting the regulatory bureaucracy off the backs of producers would help, as would embracing the new opportunities for inexpensive, plentiful energy production.
But right out of the box, before the next presidential term even begins, trouble looms. It's the "fiscal cliff" which is the result of the last effort by Washington to kick the can down the road. As Americans are finding out to their dismay, this is a toxic brew of tax increases (which all sides agree would be calamitous in a stagnant economy) and spending cuts. It’s an early test of our resolve to be more responsible.
Obamacare is another potential landmine coming up. Remember that it was designed so that the more unpopular parts, like paying for it, wouldn't kick in until after this election. (Clever, no?). But now we're here, facing huge Medicare cuts and escalating healthcare costs for businesses, families and taxpayers. Thirty million people are scheduled to be added to the medical insurance rolls in 2014 while no provisions have been made to address the 40,000 doctor shortage we already have.
The adults in the room also have to address the looming pension crisis. Neither Social Security, state and local governments, businesses nor unions have set aside enough money to fulfill their commitments to retirees. Baby boomers by the millions are careening toward retirement with little in the bank for them. Congressmen from Illinois and California are already pressing for federal relief for state governments that were eager to make extravagant pension promises but not to pay for them.
Other post-election deferrals include the defense contractor layoffs that Obama demanded be delayed and a boatload of onerous EPA regulations teed up to go into effect later. Meanwhile, serious cost cutters have to deal with food stamps, Social Security disability and unemployment rolls bloated by recent growth.
Moreover, America's security around the world needs to be shored up. "Peace through apology and accommodation" hasn’t done such a hot job of replacing "peace through strength". Now rogue states move ever closer to nuclear capability while we dither on developing missile defenses and Vladimir Putin awaits our president's promise to become even more flexible after the election.
The Arab Spring has consisted mostly of friendly autocrats being replaced by Islamist tyrants. We telegraph our decisions to end wars by a politically determined date, rather than when the mission is accomplished. Unbelievable.
The last few years have been rough for Americans. Although our problems aren't exclusively Obama's fault, this is what you get when you select an undistinguished community organizer/politician with no record of accomplishment or relevant experience to be the most powerful person on the planet. Instead of learning from his mistakes, he advocates staying the course.
The next president can make a huge difference if his head and heart are in the right place. But we need to be realistic about the mistakes that have been made and the sacrifices required to get back on track. Americans have pulled together before when the chips were down. We can do it again.
chatmandu002 posted at 9:42 am on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
Tom,
You are on target and speak the truth. I'm sure the liberal/progressive will come down hard on you, they can't handle the truth. Another four years of Obama and we WILL be Greece, with the riots in the streets. I'll be headed to the gun range to practice defending me and my own.
downtownresident posted at 10:52 am on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
Tom
Please. Would you have us believe that the federal debt is Barack Obama's fault?
Why not throw in 9/11 and the Holocaust, while you're at it.
You would rather see factories belching huge clouds of black coal dust by "getting the regulatory bureaucracy off the backs of producers:? That's what you'd have, Tom.
Let's remove the pollution controls on our cars, while we're at it.
The fiscal cliff to which you refer is a product of the tea party and tax cuts to the wealthy that were horded by big business, and small, instead of being reinvested.
Just send it to China and get it built by peasants working for peanuts, instead of investing in America. (Greed)
This statement is proof positive that you are delusional. You say the hard parts of medical care "wouldn't kick in until after this election".
The entire congress is paralyzed at least two years before every election for fear that doing what's right for the country might not set well with the people who really pay them. SPECIAL INTERESTS!!! Prove me wrong, Tom. Use facts, not hysteria, if you try this one.
If you are suggesting that the rich get more tax cuts to put in the bank, or buy up rental property to rent back to former owners, I see no way that will help the economy.
I truly fear for America if this Mormon Bishop somehow takes his cult's politics into the White House. Women, Hispanics and blacks think they are marginalized now, just wait till a Mormon takes over. "God" forbid.
Accuracy posted at 12:21 pm on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
This is the most crucial presidential election since Abraham Lincoln was elected in 1860. With the election now just days away, polls show the race is a dead heat in a race that remains tight.
President Obama faces voters on Tuesday with the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since President Franklin Roosevelt. In the unemployment rate inched up to 7.9 percent, the government only counts people as unemployed if they are actively searching – which leaves a high percentage of unemployed not counted.
Although the Obama administration has taken heat, America's economic recovery, the national $16 trillion debt, and eliminating federal regulations will be tough for whoever sits in the White House next year.
Haddie Nuff posted at 1:37 pm on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
Trickle down, or Supply Side economics, does not work. It didn't work in the late 1800s, it didn't work in the 1920s, and it hasn't worked this time around.
Neither does austerity, as Europe has proved since the global recession hit. In 1937, FDR, thinking the depression had been beat and the economy recovered, cut back on government spending and a recession promptly hit. The amount of government debt piled up during the depression years took us until the 1980s to pay off. Did anyone honestly think the great recession could be fixed immediately and without cost? That's a nice dream, but it's not reality.
Likewise cutting taxes alone does not work, and it takes raising revenue as well. This is especially true when dealing with a global economy. Business is currently sitting on literally trillions, which they are not investing here in the US. Uncertainity? Oh yes, but it's uncertainity of demand, not regulation or higher taxes. If there's no demand, why would any business hire more employees?
The tax code needs a lot of reworking, but good luck getting that through a congress that is fixated on blocking anything that might actually do some good for main street and the 99%. No president, no matter who he/she might be, can legislate. That has to come through congress, and we've just had the worse congress in history, with a House determined to vote (33 times) to repeal ObamaCare, knowing it would never pass, and legislating social issues such as abortion and contraception. The Senate, meanwhile, logged in a historic record number of filibusters.
This is a link to a CRS report showing that tax cuts will not fix the economy, they will only further the income inequity issue we have.(If you're not familiar with the Congressional Research Service, Google it for more information.)
http://www.dpcc.senate.gov/files/documents/CRSTaxesandtheEconomy%20Top%20Rates.pdf
Slabside posted at 2:02 pm on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
@ downtownresident , "Women, Hispanics and blacks think they are marginalized now, just wait till a Mormon takes over. "God" forbid."
downtownresident just can't resist displaying his bigotry in every post.
Accuracy posted at 2:06 pm on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
Negative influences have been especially evident during the last few months of the presidential campaign. Each party has spent millions painting a picture of the worst possible scenarios for Americans if their opponent is elected.
"Look, we can't go on the road we are on," Romney said. "We can't change course in America if we keep on attacking each other. We have got to come together and get America on track again."
loose stool posted at 8:22 pm on Sat, Nov 3, 2012.
Its pretty clear that obama and the democrats are not capable of running the country. The debt durning the Bush administation was from the democrat controled house and senate. The houseing collapse was caused by the democrats durning the clinton years when they removed all the requirements to receive loans.
The democrats just lack morals and integrity we need someone like Romney to do whats right not someone like obama.
Rich posted at 12:26 am on Sun, Nov 4, 2012.
"“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule—and both commonly succeed, and are right.” ― H.L. Mencken
downtownresident posted at 7:29 am on Sun, Nov 4, 2012.
Slabside,
What part of my statement is:
1. Bigoted
2. Incorrect
Come on now, if the truth hurts you, maybe it should!
REG in AZ posted at 10:26 am on Sun, Nov 4, 2012.
Is America experiencing a moral and ethical decline much like the Roman Empire did after their rise to greatness? We elect politicians who are grossly dishonest just because they are aggressive and promise us “more”. We applaud financial success no matter how it is achieved and ignore quality without it. We follow clergy who excite with hype created over being “holier than thou” when all religious doctrines teach humility is God’s true way. We rationalize that we individually deserve “more” based on others having it and seek to attain it however we can. We have political movements shouting and demonstrating with their “more for me for nothing” mentality. We have a political party that just gives the 99% subterfuge as they self-servingly concentrate on catering to the 1% for their support. We have activists who are on national media constantly ranting and raving about how justified it is for the few to always be gaining “more” and rationalize that those needing are just looking for a handout. We have media, owned by billionaires and staffed by millionaires, that work to influence, at the minimum subtly, the public’s thinking, thereby failing their responsibility and the public’s trust. We have politicians who want to even cut benefits for children in order to give “more” to the very wealthy. ...
... We have politicians, with strong support from the “money”, who manipulate public opinion with deceptions aimed to excite emotions and appeal to selfish interests. They fault “big government”, which didn’t cause our problems, to distract from and condone the aggressive exploitation by the few, which does constantly cause our problems. We rationalize that our religious beliefs should dominate and control yet we fault countries who have followed those same paths. We have business, community and government leaders who demonstrate self-aggrandizing without ever conscientiously serving more than their own interests. We see many who take pride in their financial gains, with pride in real quality disappearing. We see the top 1% constantly pushing for “more”, without concern for the the 99% and then they propagandize that the 99% are at fault for needing more. On and on with the measurement and the motivation always being for material success, without guilt or concern for neglecting compassion or for being dishonest. No, this isn’t true of everyone but there is little evidence of it not being tolerated by everyone. Where is the honesty, the conscience, the compassion, the humility and the striving for personal quality that made America great? Is America in a drastic moral decline - I don’t know, but maybe you can tell by your own reaction to this and by how you vote.
Mike McClellan posted at 7:07 pm on Sun, Nov 4, 2012.
Dr. Patterson finishes his column this way:
"The next president can make a huge difference if his head and heart are in the right place."
My question to him -- and other Romney supporters -- is this: How can you tell?
I mean by that question, which Mitt Romney are you rooting for?
Just to take one issue -- abortion.
As Nick Kristoff points out in his Times column today, Romney has had four different positions on abortion . . . in the last two months.
His website says he's for overturning Roe v. Wade and "return to a sanctity of life."
But in July, he's said he's for ending abortions except in the cases of incest, rape, and the life of the mother.
But then in August, he added "health of the mother" to the list of exceptions.
But then in September, he said he favored the "personhood initiative" that gives the fertilized egg full legal rights at the moment of conception.
So what DOES he believe? That's what all voters should be asking themselves in the next few hours, at least the ones going to the polls Tuesday.
mnjcpa posted at 8:25 am on Mon, Nov 5, 2012.
These are real problems, not whether someone can take life from another:
+ America's present value of unfunded entitlements is over $200 trillion.
+ The US has $16 trillion (and rising like a flood) in federal debt.
+ We're no longer ranked in the top 26 in global education, and barely hanging on to a top 10 slot in innovation.
+ Our pension fund value gap of $1.5 trillion may lead the world, however cities/states are broke; real un/underemployment rate is 15-20%.
+ half of our population is disenfranchised from the global economy.
Patterson says it so well when he says we elected (I voted for Obama too in 2008) that he's `undistinguished community organizer/politician with no record of accomplishment or relevant experience to be the most powerful person on the planet. Instead of learning from his mistakes, he advocates staying the course.
With the kind of problems I described above, he's the last person America should be voting for again.
REG in AZ posted at 7:26 pm on Mon, Nov 5, 2012.
Ryan tries hard to make religion a positive for himself; why not he really has no other credibility. There is a current deception that pressures and confuses. When I attended parochial school it was drilled into us that the first requirement for committing a sin was we had to personally believe it was a sin and then willfully do it anyway. This was stressed to the point that if something by rule wasn’t actually a sin but we thought it was and did it anyway, then it was a sin, with the reverse being just as true when we don’t think something is a sin. You can’t just change things now to simply support religious biases. If people don’t think it is a sin or more likely if they think the alternative choice is wrong and the real evil, then you can’t force them to support that evil, to go against their conscience by advocating the clergy’s bias is more important. Much of religion is personal and simply strongly between the individual and God and to preach otherwise would literally be anti-religion. If an individual voter thinks it is wrong to support a grossly dishonest politician who self-servingly caters to “the money” for their support and who neglects his responsibilities to the people, just taking them for granted and trying to con and use them as “pawns”, then obviously that would be the very grievous sin and what they must avoid in order to have a clear conscience.
Engaged Voter posted at 6:25 pm on Tue, Nov 6, 2012.
Yes, it will make a huge difference if our next president's head and heart are in the right place.
Whacky cults and an imaginary planet called Kolob are NOT the right place!
Engaged Voter posted at 6:27 pm on Tue, Nov 6, 2012.
"Is America experiencing a moral and ethical decline much like the Roman Empire did after their rise to greatness?"
It could be...remember, Rome fell after they adopted Christianity as their official religion. Try not to forget that fact. ;)
Dale Whiting posted at 4:18 am on Wed, Nov 7, 2012.
Ok, Tom,
Grab the rope and start pulling. So far you've been pushing, not pulling!