OK, so who got the bounce from the conventions? Obama-Biden did. Initially, they received a national ratings bump of about 4 percent. As of a week later, the bounce had increased to the high single digits.
Each percentage point is estimated to represent about 1 million votes. So, a 9-percent bump is 9 million potential voters choosing Obama-Biden over Romney-Ryan.
But, why did Obama-Biden get a significant bounce while Romney-Ryan received virtually nothing?
Most viewers tend to only remember the high or low points from any political convention.
I would suggest that most people remember the Clint Eastwood disaster from the Republican convention the night of Romney’s acceptance speech. On the other hand, many American’s agree that the highlight of the Democratic convention was the Clinton speech.
What a contrast: Rambling to an empty chair or listening to the greatest communicator of our generation.
One national Republican commentator suggested on CNN, following the conclusion of the Clinton speech, that we may have witnessed the moment that Obama was re-elected.
Clinton sealed the deal.
Though, this overview may be a tad simplistic.
I would argue that the Democratic convention came across as authentic, genuine, honest and flowing with peace and love while the Republican convention came across as angry, mean-spirited, phony, disingenuous and self-serving — not a recipe for expanding one’s base.
A Republican platform that advocates no limit on American’s ability to purchase semi-automatic weapons with unlimited ammo capacities, what are they thinking?
In fact, it appears that Romney’s play to the far-right of the Republican Party, or Tea Party (Is there a difference?), backfired.
Nominating a do-nothing, Tea Party Congressman from Wisconsin as his VP candidate was the final blow.
It’s going to be hard to expand his base, which Romney desperately needs to do, when he consistently says and does things that turn off Independent voters in “swing” states.
Even yesterday, polls indicated that Obama has expanded his lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia, must-wins for the Romney campaign — not to mention, North Carolina is in play for Obama and Pennsylvania now looks like an Obama lock.
Romney-Ryan now have virtually no path to victory.
Now, it appears, that Romney’s final chance at capturing the presidency is to significantly beat Obama in the three October debates.
Unfortunately for Romney, he has played into Obama’s strongest suit, his ability to communicate. The general public has always thought of Obama as a likeable guy who can give a heck of a speech.
Romney, on the other hand, continues to come across as stiff, calculating and cold, not a recipe for changing listener’s minds.
I can’t wait to hear Romney refer to the voters as “you people” or talk down to or denigrate the president.
Folks, this could get ugly.
I stand by my forecast from May of this year that Obama wins by 7 percent.
Romney has not answered the bell. We continue to move “forward.”
Jon Beydler is a 34-year Valley resident and the former Mayor of Fountain Hills who lives in south Chandler.