The Ames Straw Poll once again served its dual purpose: It winnowed the Republican field and raised significant money for the Republican Party of Iowa.
With the first electoral test of the Republican presidential primary now in the rearview mirror, we can look forward with new clarity.
Based on what is known today, the Republican nominee for President is almost certainly one of the following, in alphabetical order: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Gov. Rick Perry (R-Texas) or former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.). These three individuals solely constitute the first tier.
After investing over $1 million in the Ames Straw Poll, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.) chose to end his struggling campaign rather than incur debt in a very uphill battle.
Longshot conservatives former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Penn.) and businessman Herman Cain finished fourth and fifth respectively, and can only hope that candidates in the first tier falter and their attention-starved and financially-strapped candidacies catch fire.
But what to say about Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), who narrowly finished second to Bachmann in Ames? With his enigmatic libertarian views and advanced age (for a presidential candidate), he will not be the Republican nominee, but he is better funded and better organized this time around. It's not clear who his candidacy hurts most or when it is likely to end, though it doesn't look like he'll drop out before the Iowa Caucuses.
So where do we go from here?
Perry completed a whirlwind 36 hours where he visited all three of the early states for the first time as an announced candidate. Before Sept. 1 he will hold at least 12 fundraisers in the South and Mountain West to bring in the seed money he needs to run a national campaign.
From a strategic standpoint, each of the top tier candidates has different goals:
• Bachmann: Her campaign must win the Iowa Caucuses, plain and simple. Going forward she needs to expand her fundraising base to include more large donors and bundlers, continue to effectively fight mainstream media attacks, remain disciplined in her message (as she did on all five Sunday shows over the weekend) and expand her support in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
To win the Republican Party's nomination, she must become the anti-Romney candidate, but to do so she must prevent Perry from that slot. Meanwhile, she will remain a sitting member of Congress and be forced to cast important votes on Capitol Hill on expiring tax breaks and a likely debt deal from the Congressional "super-committee."
• Perry: His campaign faces a critical week on the campaign trail, when first impressions will be made among voters and the national media glare will be white hot.
Perry's team is attempting to do what has never been successfully done in Republican politics: enter the presidential campaign 150 days before the first delegates are elected. The campaign's, equally important strategic imperatives, are to raising a significant amount of money (likely $20-$25 million by the end of 2011) and investing enough candidate time to build support in the early states. To do this, Perry cannot personally attend most fundraising events; instead, large donors and bundlers must sign on and produce - quickly.
While reserving the right to defend himself, Perry will likely ignore Bachmann, focusing initially on President Obama and eventually on Romney.
One successful scenario is a strong second place finish in Iowa against Bachmann. Then on to New Hampshire where he would need to finish second or third to Romney, and then on to a win in South Carolina and Florida - which means he and Romney advance to the finals.
• Romney: Romney has been walking a tightrope so far. He has raised more money than any other candidate, but he has tried to float under the radar to minimize press access, mistakes, scrutiny and attacks from opponents. The next phase of the campaign won't allow this level of detachment.
Romney's campaign has promised major policy rollouts and more retail campaigning in September.
He will need to retain a laser-like focus on the economy. He'll also need to make the case against Obama's failed leadership, and hope that electability arguments deliver the nomination for him, as it did Sen. John McCain in 2008.
There's no question that the next phase of the GOP 2012 campaign will be intense. September's calendar alone includes three televised debates, a presidential forum hosted by conservative kingmaker Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), as well as the end of the third quarter's fundraising period on Sept. 30.
Meanwhile, we await a decision from former Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska), who seems unlikely to run, especially with Perry in the race, but remains as unpredictable and dynamic as ever.
After many months of uncertainty, August has provided clarity to the 2012 Republican primary battle. September promises to be exciting to watch as the first tier candidates go forward.
• Matt Mackowiak is a Republican consultant and president of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC. He can be reached at matt@potomacstrategygroup.com.
Rich posted at 11:41 am on Thu, Aug 18, 2011.
Wow, are the pundits and media after Ron Paul. Nice hatchet job there Matt. "...enigmatic libertarian views" the Tea Party is perfectly understandable of course. Actually they are almost the same. Those views have been marginally popular since H. L. Mencken in the 20s, they are no enigma, though they are the most prevalent political philosophy of the highest IQ ranges. Intelligence obviously has no place in politics, but a pure hachet job shouldn't be published without some explanation of why.
Cactuscrusader posted at 1:25 pm on Thu, Aug 18, 2011.
The Straw Poll is a Republican fundraiser. It really doesn't mean anything, and needs to get as much press as any other fundraiser--which is no press. It has been given a lot of play in the past, but really, the group represents such a limited and concentrated demographic as to become irrelevant to the national election. These folks would vote for a slug if it could carry a sign that held their talking points on it.
People are after Ron Paul because he is a cartoon character, a fairy tale myth. I can wish for pink ponies all day long but it is not part of reality it ain't gonna happen, nor are any of Ron Paul's fantasy policy talking points. They don't pass the "works in reality" test.
NothingButTheTruth posted at 2:19 pm on Thu, Aug 18, 2011.
Cactuscrusader says, "These folks would vote for a slug if it could carry a sign that held their talking points on it." Of course, how do you think Obozo was elected president?
NothingButTheTruth posted at 10:43 am on Fri, Aug 19, 2011.
Cactuscrusader, you can call Ron Paul a cartoon character and a fairy tale myth, but I'll bet you don't even have a clue what the man stands for. Maybe, as you stated, you wishing for pink ponies all day isn't a part of reality, but could you show us how Ron Paul's policy talking points are the same as your fantasies about pink ponies? What he and the tea party want may never come to fruition, but to call them fantasies on par with you wising for pink ponies is absurd at best. Why don't you learn about the man before making statements about the man that you know nothing about? Most of the stuff attributed to Ron Paul are created from fantasy by people who oppose his real policies. http://www.ronpaul.com/who-is-ron-paul/
A_Rose_By_Any_Other_Name posted at 11:02 am on Fri, Aug 19, 2011.
This is how the liberal press affects elections. Since most people like Cactuscrusader get the bulk of their information from watching TV news and reading newspapers the liberal media is able to have a fairly large influence on who gets elected, (that IS how this Obozo character got elected) and when a conservative media outlet shows up they vilify it as being partial to conservative views all the while denying their own prejudices. Ron Paul isn't given any press even when he comes in a close second place? Pretty obvious what's going on here. Like him or not, the liberal press fear him.
RationalHuman posted at 4:10 pm on Wed, Aug 24, 2011.
"Based on what is known today, the Republican nominee for President is almost certainly one of the following, in alphabetical order: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Gov. Rick Perry (R-Texas) or former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.). These three individuals solely constitute the first tier."
Wow. So every single Republican candidate is a cerifiable whacko nutcase.
Why can't the GOP put forth a SANE, intelligent candidate? Do they really not have one?
We've got a spellcasting witch (Bachmann), a governor who spends tax dollars praying for rain (Perry, and the rain never came lol), and "magic underwear" Romney.
We need a leader who can look towards the future, not one who has their head buried in the superstitions of the past.
NothingButTheTruth posted at 9:53 am on Sun, Aug 28, 2011.
So RationalHuman do you have a name you would like to put forward as a possible republican candidate? Possible someone who can look towards the future, not one who has their head buried in the superstitions of the past with beliefs that most Americans also share? Do you suppose someone who thinks life and the universe came out of nothing by pure chance stands a snowball's chance of making it in a conservative world of politics?