A funny current TV ad depicts Jack, the plastic-headed fast-food chain “owner,” taking a tumble while shooting his own commercial to save money.
Getting to his feet, he says, “I can’t WAIT for this recession to be over.”
Don’t we all. Go into any East Valley fast-food place and you’ll hear any number of economic conversations, all with the central hope of: When exactly is the end?
Pundits and professors of various degrees of expertise have filled the news with predictions about the start of the economic recovery. Most all agree that Arizona — always identified in news reports as one of the “hardest-hit states” — will be among the last to come back.
Yet all the expert predictions are carefully imprecise. Most get no more detailed than by year, and often those come in twos: “2013 or 2014.”
Others cover all possibilities: “When your grandchildren retire.” “When the Cubs win the World Series.” “When Donald Trump shaves his head.”
Some more brave calls involve quarters, but you don’t see a recovery date in there, just obscure indicators: “By the fourth quarter, you’ll see some uptick in ski wear.”
I’m no economist, so I wouldn’t blame you if you take this declaration with a significant degree of skepticism: Today is the turning point. Starting now, the East Valley is officially on the way out of the recession. (Told you that you’d be skeptical.)
Now, the doubter would properly first ask how I know this, especially when so many more qualified people have been making predictions for some time, all over the scale.
But that is where recovery begins, as a bunch of us are pointing in different directions.
The East Valley finds itself at this point, amid a basketful of mixed signals. You’ve been reading it in the Tribune, from news of bleak jobs pictures for new college grads to growing numbers of employers saying they plan to hire. From a revival of sorts on Tempe’s Mill Avenue and East Valley hotels seeing more reservations to rising gasoline prices that tend to arrest business growth. And while there are a few signs of growth in homebuilding in the East Valley, foreclosures continue to rise, although not by as much.
Recovery begins amid the churn of uncertain direction, where the first to venture out — call them brave or foolish or simply first — try to make something work because, like Jack, they’re just tired of it all. They’ve decided that the good times begin now, with them.
The only missing ingredient is the rest of us deciding the same thing.
For the East Valley, it will take a much larger sense of place, a sense of home, a sense of here. Even though growth has slowed, we are still a spot people hold off on deciding whether it’s their home even after they’ve lived here for several years. Members of our sports teams, even when they’re winning, should no longer look up into the home stands to see more people cheering for their opponents.
Much about recent Arizona politics and policy have signaled to others that this isn’t a desirable place to live. But such things are only a part of life here, thank goodness, and it’s time we start concentrating on those things that still make millions of people wish they lived here.
That will be the start of the recovery. And it could very well start today.
Mark J. Scarp is a contributing columnist for the Tribune. Reach him at mscarp1@cox.net.
manini posted at 5:44 am on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
Ummm, Capitol Media Services & the AP News Service had articles that say otherwise about AZ Unemployment Rate recently, "Sherlock." Both MAJOR economic & business news media sources state that the present unemployment rate for AZ is 10.3%, one of the highest unemployment rates in the U.S.; last year at the same time in 2010, it was 9.7%; and the year b4 in 2009, it was 9.7%. So what have U been sniffing or what planet have U been on recently with Ur upbeat prognostications, hmmmmmm????...LOL!!!
theman posted at 9:23 am on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
Manini, if you are going to chastise others, first try and
use generally accepted sources for unemployment. You
must be either serious uneducated or ignorant if you don't know
enough to use the US Dpt Of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
at bls dot gov. You are googling unemployment numbers and mixing
state and local, and metropolitan numbers up. At the state level
Arizona unemployment in December 2010 was 9.4, Jan 2011 was 9.6
(preliminary), and Jan 2010 it was 10.3. Jan 2009 was 8.0. Unemployment
numbers are not even verified for Jan 2011 until March 18, 2011.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf
theman posted at 9:30 am on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
Also in March 2010 Unemployment in AZ was 9.6, and
March 2009 7.8. source: bls dot gov
spyderdog posted at 3:10 pm on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
until we get the neo cons out of office nothing will get better for anybody here
manini posted at 3:14 pm on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
Umm, "Mr. HamMan," eyeball the attached EVT Tribune Business article on the bogus, phoney "AZ Unemployment Rates" the state & other local AZ mainstream media dummies are paying nitwits like U to phoney up...hehehe...FYI Link:
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article_baa833e6-45bf-11e0-b164-001cc4c002e0.html
Tsk! Tsk! Tsk!...grasshoppah!!!????....LOL!!!!
theman posted at 5:25 pm on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
Manini, in what way is the AZ Dpt of Commerce making any false
unemployment claims. Actually the Bureau of Labor Statistics for
example originally estimated unemployment to be 9.4, but then
revised it later after all reports were in to 9.6. This is a normal
process for labor statistics. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/laus.pdf
All the changes in unemployment in the "as recalculated now" are due
to this lag in trying to process all reports which take months after
the reporting month to be completed. There is no conspiracy. If you
read the East Tribune article carefully they even note that the BLS
is used to reconcile their numbers. The BLS revises their own numbers
several months after they are published. The 12/2010 numbers were just
revised 03/10/2011 . AZ Dpt of Commerce has a right to estimate
numbers, as long as they revise them later. The BLS is generally
used by anyone when citing. Where is the AZ unemployment 10.3 for
03/2011 like you said when it hasn't been calculated yet? If it is cited
anywhere it is just a vague unqualified estimate.
theman posted at 5:26 pm on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
The 9.4 and 9.6 were in reference to 12/2010.
theman posted at 5:33 pm on Sat, Mar 12, 2011.
The unemployment cited in the first part mentioned is in reference to 12/10 9.4 revised
to 9.6.
k33j88 posted at 6:54 am on Sun, Mar 13, 2011.
The price of our lifeblood(oil) will continue to rise to to the near worthless, "fiat dollar and euro". If the dollar loses its "reserve currancy status", whats next? The biggest bond fund just "dumped" all of its US treasury holdings. And the band plays on.
Leon Ceniceros posted at 2:19 pm on Sun, Mar 13, 2011.
Mike Scarp writes..."Much about recent Arizona politics and policy have signaled to others that this isn't a desirable place to live".
I agree with you 100%, Mike. It's great to see "real" Americans here in the EVT speaking up for the Majority of not only Arizona Citizens but Citizens all across America who are sick and tired of the Left-Wing/Socialist Democrat Pro-Illegal Alien Amnesty agenda. It's Americans like you who are not afraid to standup to the Hispanic (Brown skin people have rights too) Open-Borders Agenda. You along with almost 70% of the Voters don't see what the color of an Illegal Alien's skin has to do with the fact that they entered our Country = ILLEGALLY. Mike, your column bringing up....LEGAL AMERICANS RIGHTS ...IS LONG OVERDUE. I know that Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Speaker Adams, Senate President Pearce and Governor Jan Brewer are your...ARIZONA HEROES....just like they are to the vast MAJORITY OF ARIZONA CITIZENS.
GOD BLESS YOU, MIKE SCARP, FOR STANDING UP AND TELLING THE AMERICAN CITIZEN THAT ARIZONA IS CREATING AN ..."ILLEGAL ALIEN UN-WELCOME STATE".....not another ...."COMMIE-FORNIA = OPEN BORDERS STATE".
ARIZONA NEEDS MORE ...."100% AMERICANS"....LIKE YOU.
azconan posted at 10:07 am on Mon, Mar 14, 2011.
I am a business owner in Mesa and have offices all over the state. I have 2 in Mesa. I can tell you 100% that business is AWFUL. What Russell Pearce has done to this community in the last 2 years with his racist bigotry has totally hurt this economy. These morons believe that all illegals do is cost us money. Well they dont pay for rent, buy food, buy clothes, pay for services, go to eat, or anything else right? Yeah its true many of them dont have health insurance and use our emergency rooms as healthcare. Anytime you want go look , SO DO WHITE PEOPLE ! The poor in general do this.
If our legislators would concentrate on growing business instead of hurting our image then this state would look alot better. As it is Ive had to reduce pay, get more hlp from my employees for costs and hold down new hires.