Arizona Republicans hold two-thirds of the seats in both chambers of the Legislature after padding their majorities in 2010 as the party's wave swept across the nation. But those "supermajorities" that allowed them to vigorously pursue conservative courses on gun rights and other social issues appear to be on the line Nov. 6.
Republicans outnumber Democrats statewide and hold leads in most legislative districts, but this is the first general election using the map of new districts drawn after the 2010 census.
Redistricting left many Republicans unhappy, complaining that the state redistricting commission favored Democrats and stressed creation of competitive districts — ones winnable by either major party — at the expense of other redistricting goals.
The redistricting changes, the growing percentage of registered independents and the higher turnout in a presidential election are creating expectations that more districts are in play and that the Republicans' 2010 gains were a high tide that will recede in November.
"We're going to see a shift. They will no longer have a supermajority," said Mike Gardner, a Republican lobbyist and former legislator. "It will have a major impact on the types of policies that this Legislature will pass."
In Arizona, a party must hold two-thirds of the seats in a chamber to have a supermajority. That's the threshold required for veto overrides, but more routinely it enables a chamber's majority to take an aggressive policy course even if a few of its own members balk.
In recent years, Republicans in the state Legislature used that power to pursue conservative legislation on social issues ranging from gun rights to school choice while championing a small-government philosophy on regulatory matters and social services and pushing for tax cuts for business.
Except when Democrat Janet Napolitano was governor, Democratic lawmakers have had little say on contentious issues— usually finding themselves on the winning side only when their positions lined up with those of moderate Republicans.
Governors from both parties have used their veto stamps and other powers to sometimes hold lawmakers in check, particularly during the six years before Napolitano departed in 2009 to become U.S. Homeland Security secretary. However, current Gov. Jan Brewer more often than not finds herself in ideological sync with her fellow Republicans.
While the GOP's 40-seat majority in the 60-member House is expected to shrink a bit, most attention is focused on the 30-member Senate. Republicans picked up four additional Senate seats in 2010 and now hold 21 seats, a record high.
But even if Republicans retain control of the Senate, the loss of four or five seats would give disproportionate clout to GOP moderates, said Sen. Steve Gallardo, a Phoenix Democrat.
"They definitely have to stick together to get anything out of the state Senate. If one or two decides to flee from the bloc on critical bills, that changes the whole ballgame," Gallardo said. "The day of this tea party agenda is over."
Republicans' talking points in this year's legislative races include boasting of the state's return to fiscal stability and efforts to stimulate the economy.
Meanwhile, Democrats point to budget cuts in education funding and accuse Republicans of waging "extremist" policies against women on contraception and abortion.
"The Democrats' goal in this election is to make the Republican Party look as extreme as possible because that tends to turn off registered independents," said Chris Herstam, a political analyst and former Republican legislator.
Republicans have controlled both chambers of the Legislature since the early 1990s, except for a 15-15 split in the Senate in the 2001-2002 session.
To produce another Senate split like that, Democrats would have to overcome sizable GOP registration margins in several districts and sweep virtually all the races considered up for grabs.
"That's what is going to tilt the Legislature — those competitive seats," Gallardo said.
As in 2010, national politics could again have an impact on legislative races, said Kristin Borns, a former Arizona State University policy analyst and registered independent who worked in Napolitano's administration.
Some candidates "are hooking onto the presidential election and some of our congressional races," while the higher voter turnout for a presidential election also is a factor, Borns said. "It's a national election year."
Arizona Willie posted at 8:46 am on Tue, Oct 23, 2012.
Some of the newspapers do their best to help Republican politicians hide their scandals.
The Arizona Repubic has published several articles about Horne's problems with illegal campaign finance and a hit and run accident while taking his office tootsie to her home fro a nooner.
The East Valley Tribune on the other hand -- sees fit to not mention one word of these scandals lest it hurt Republican election chances ... not to mention Horne's career.
Horne, Montgomery, and Brewer have all committed CRIMINAL offenses in regard to the state's Medical Marijuana Law.
They may have the right to file lawsuits about the law --- but THEY DO NOT have authority to set a valid law aside and instruct State employees to refuse to do their duty under the valid law.
They have committed the crime of interfering with a law by causing employees to fail to do their duty under the law.
This has prevented many patients from being able to obtain their medication but also cost would-be dispensary owners lost profits because they have not been able to exercise their right to operate under State law.
They claim they are concerned the Feds will go after State employees for violating Federal Law --- but the Federal Government has, so far, never arrested any State employee for doing their job under their state marijuana law.
The Federal prosecutors have stated that it is not their intention to do so, they are only interested in large scale illegal operations that are not in compliance with the state law -- and that is the ONLY people they have arrested so far in ANY state.
Brewer, Horne, and Montgomery are ALL guilty of CRIMINAL action in defying the voters of the state.
Deddzone posted at 9:57 am on Fri, Oct 26, 2012.
The right-wing crazy Legislature has abused it's supermajority. The laws they attempted to pass were not in the best interest of the state and actually prevent recovery.
The first sign that the voters were over this nutty group was when King Pearce was tossed out and replaced.
I suspect things will improve in AZ.
Cas Lee posted at 7:34 pm on Sun, Oct 28, 2012.
Hello, my fellow American voters!
I watched the Oct. 3rd, 11th, 16th, and 22nd debates.
1st Romney-Obama debate covered 7 topics: jobs; budget deficit/debt; social security/entitlements; federal gov’t economic regulation and role; healthcare; partisan gridlock.
2nd Romney-Obama debate covered 11 topics: college graduate jobs; gas prices; taxes; equal pay; Bush policies; Obama’s record; illegal immigrants; Libya; assault weapons; jobs; candidate misperceptions.
3rd Romney-Obama debate covered 10 topics: Libya; Syria; Egypt; U.S. world role; military spending; Israel; Iran; Afghanistan; China; U.S. national security threats.
Ryan-Biden debate covered 10 topics: Libya; Iran; economy; medicare/social security/entitlements; tax reform/spending/budget cuts; military policy; Afghanistan; Syria; abortion; negative campaign tactics.
Romney and Ryan won all 4 debates, although Obama improved some in the 2nd debate and Romney slightly took the win both in the 2nd and 3rd debates.
In the 3rd debate (unlike in prior debates), Obama reflected his weakness and disrespect by interrupting Romney a lot and using too many “one-line quips” to try to denigrate Romney.
Ryan won despite Biden’s consistently rude behavior during the debate (often interrupted Ryan, laughed when Ryan talked, pointed his finger). Biden’s tactics to evade issues/truth disrespected Americans interested in facts, figures, forecasts, and solutions for real people with real problems.
Romney and Ryan won with substance, directness, integrity, respect, clarity, facts, commitment, inspiration, credibility, and leadership.
As an INDEPENDENT female feminist (egalitarian) voter, I support the Romney/Ryan ticket.
Romney and Ryan, with their no-nonsense and methodic approach to solving America’s problems, are the best persons in terms of qualifications and character to lead our country and make life better for all Americans.
I am inspired by Romney/Ryan, and I hope that you are too!
Best regards,
Cas Lee