In recent years, the Del Yaqui Restaurant in Guadalupe has been a barometer of the battle over the political hearts and minds of Latino voters.
Lunchtime tension was so high during the Maricopa County Sheriff Office's crime sweeps of the town in 2008, when a picture of Sheriff Joe Arpaio was put up in the restaurant as a joke, an enraged patron tore it down. And this year, the staff saw clientele disappear after Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer signed SB 1070.
"I guess there's only two things (for Latinos) to do," one customer said during the summer fury over the immigration law. "We can leave the state, or vote accordingly in the next election."
In a 2010 election in which Republicans made gains at every level of government, the hostility the party received from Latinos, the country's biggest and fastest-growing minority group, was palpable. For the third straight cycle, Latinos preferred Democrats over Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 34 percent, according to exit polling.
"I'd be lying if I said it wasn't a concern," said Jesse Hernandez, president of the Arizona Latino Republican Association.
The trend did not hurt the GOP in Arizona, as Brewer led her party's sweep of statewide offices, and the Republicans strengthened their hold on the Legislature. However, Latino voters played decisive roles in Senate races in California, Nevada, Colorado and Washington - and likely cost the GOP control of that chamber.
For Democrats, their performance among Latino voters was a silver lining in what was a bloody election. And it's a trend that Republicans - especially in Arizona - ignore at their own peril, pollsters say.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Latinos made up 12.5 percent of the national population in 2000, a figure that is projected to double by 2050.
"We're already there in Nevada and Colorado. Those states should have gone Republican, and they didn't," said Matt Barreto, a political science professor at the University of Washington and analyst for Latino Decisions, a polling firm. "It was 100 percent the result of strong Latino vote for Democrats.
"Republicans need to win in the high 30s of the Latino vote, or they are going to have to win 60 to 65 percent of the white vote. Arizona is the next state to tip, maybe by 2016, for sure by 2020 if the Latino vote increases in Arizona like the numbers are trending now."
DeeDee Blase aims to stem that tide. The Scottsdale resident is founder of Somos Republicans, an advocacy group that has 4,500 members in seven states. She looks at exit polling from the 2004 election, when George W. Bush received about 45 percent of the Latino vote, laments the dropoff since and worries about missed opportunities among a demographic that typically is entrepreneurial, faith-based and socially conservative.
Are Latinos capable of throwing weight around in a national election? Not yet. The likeliest battlegrounds in the 2012 presidential election are in such states as Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Republicans made big gains this year and have small Latino populations.
But that is of little comfort to Blase, whose concerns are closer to home.
Latinos made up 30 percent of Arizona's estimated 6.5 million population. There are 766,000 eligible Latino voters in the state, with about half registered.
"I see us losing Arizona," Blase said. "I don't like pointing the finger at Republicans. I like fighting with the Democrats. Everyone in the Republican Party interest should be concerned about a drop to 30 percent (among Latinos). That is significant. How can we win the 2012 election with those numbers?"
GREATER NUMBERS?
Marc Hugo Lopez, associate director at the non-partisan Pew Research Center, said that the Latino voting bloc has increased by more than 1 million nationally for every midterm election cycle since 1998.
"The Latino population is growing, which means that the number eligible to vote is growing," Lopez said. "From 1998 to 2002, 2002 to 2006, we've seen the number of Hispanic voters grow, usually by about 1 million to 1.5 million in the midterms. So, it's likely that the number of Latinos voting in 2010 grew from 2006. How much, we don't know yet."
While the biggest concerns of Latino voters - the economy and jobs - mirrored other demographics, Lopez said, his firm's polling found that Latinos who were informed about the immigration debate were more likely to vote.
Barreto believes that exit polling has understated the level of Latino support for Democrats. He said that 80 percent of those voters nationally went for Democrats, up from the 70 percent President Barack Obama received in 2008, based on Latino Decision's election-eve polling.
"The mission of exit-poll data is to gauge competitive precincts in a state to determine a state result, so you can call the election, not tell how a particular sub-group voted," Barreto said. "So, the bellwether precincts are over-sampled, but not everybody lives there. That is not an accurate refection of an entire state.
"In all of these states, the estimated votes of Latinos for Republicans would appear to be up from 2008. That makes no theoretical sense. Nobody who works in and studies politics would tell you that will happen."
Barreto cited the exit polls from Nevada, which showed GOP Senate candidate Sharron Angle - who ran campaign commercials demonizing illegal immigrants - receiving 30 percent of Latino support, outperforming John McCain in the 2008 presidential election. Latino Decisions' poll gave Democrat Harry Reid a 90-8 edge.
GOP CANDIDATES
Republicans tout inroads among the Latino community by citing eight of their winners on Election Day, all Latinos: Marco Rubio, Florida Senator-elect; Susana Martinez, New Mexico governor-elect; Brian Sandoval, Nevada governor-elect, and five new House members who will join two incumbents.
In a three-way race, Rubio received a majority of the Hispanic vote in Florida, primarily because of a Cuban-American population that leans Republican.
Barreto believes the success of the GOP Latino candidates was in part due to the moderation of their message, noting that Rubio and Martinez had conservative positions on immigration.
"They were not as conservative as Jan Brewer and Sharron Angle," Barreto said. "Those that won know better how to do outreach that most GOP candidates do not understand ... Rubio says how he's proud of his immigrant parents and how they came to America to build a new life. Sharron Angle said that immigrants come to America to join violent gangs."
Said Blase: "If my party stopped using terms like ‘Operation Wetback' and ‘anchor babies,' we'd be a lot better off."
Hernandez acknowledged that some of the discourse from Arizona Republicans during the SB 1070 debate amounted to "saying let's put immigrants in a cart and ship them out UPS." He is hopeful the party as a whole changes tone.
"We dropped the ball on that one, or as I like to say, we dropped the chalupa," Hernandez said.
"People like Rubio and Martinez said they were tough on immigration, but added, ‘Let me tell you why, in common-sense terms.' They laid it out and explained it, what the problem means to the economy and our schools. The voters understood that and responded to it."
ARIZONA BATTLE
In 1994, then-California governor Pete Wilson, a Republican, advocated Proposition 187, an anti-immigration initiative. Proposition supporters released a television ad showing undocumented people crossing the border with a voiceover: "They keep coming."
And since then, Latinos in California have kept coming - to the polls to support Democratic candidates, helping turn the home state of GOP icon Ronald Reagan into reliably blue turf.
In 1992, Barbara Boxer was elected to the Senate with 52 percent of the Latino vote. This year, as Latinos comprised 22 percent of the California electorate, exit polls gave her 65 percent support among the demographic, with Latino Decisions' polling indicating an 86-14 edge over Republican Carly Fiorina.
Latino Decisions reported 86 percent demographic support for Democrat Jerry Brown, who defeated Meg Whitman in the California governor's race.
"I fear California may be a lost cause," Blase said.
Where the future political loyalties in Arizona rest depends on outreach, officials and advocates for both major parties said.
Luis Heredia, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, said that marshaling Latino support here is more challenging than in nearby states.
"The influence of labor and what that has with Latinos in California and Nevada is a very close allegiance," Heredia said. "You can mobilize a lot more Latinos to participate. You also have a more progressive infrastructure in Colorado, with a sitting Democratic Senator and governor, so that institution was already there.
"The opportunity we have in Arizona is not as well-structured, so what we have to do is keep working with the Latino communities in the state in building it."
Hernandez said he is hopeful of an identity shift, believing that the future generations of Arizona Latinos will gravitate toward Republicans.
"Those people are going to go more to the right because they are not going to automatically relate (politically) to their parents or grandparents," Hernandez said. "I think that entrepreneurial spirit will come out, and they'll be more conservative.
"But right now? There's a mass push among the (Latino) community to the left, there's no doubt about it."
Masterrogue666 posted at 8:41 pm on Sat, Nov 27, 2010.
LEGAL Latinos, LEGAL Asians, LEGAL et al, don't have to leave. They just have to be here LEGALLY. If you are not, then YOU DON'T BELONG HERE!!!
And for those that can't read English, I'll have it translated to reflect the language used by the highest majority of ILLEGAL ALIENS ancestry:
JURÍDICO Latinos, Asiáticos LEGAL, JURÍDICA et al, no tiene que irse. Sólo tienen que estar aquí legalmente. Si no, entonces USTED NO PERTENECEN AQUÍ!!!
azrepublican posted at 11:35 am on Tue, Nov 23, 2010.
abimopectore, I can see that at least two of your first posts are gone. Can't see why though. This does make any meaningful dialog impossible. What I was trying to say is that I don't believe the articles assertion that the growing number a Latinos will tip the balance of power to the democrats. I also do not believe that republicans promote largely anti-Latino sentiments, and when we finally get this illegal immigration under control, I believe the Latino population will come to see the party as having the better platform for everyone as they seem to have in Florida. Of course, and you can spin this any way you like, I think the Latinos in Florida are much brighter than the mestizos we have here in AZ. Jose agrees. [beam]
abimopectore posted at 7:19 am on Tue, Nov 23, 2010.
azrepublican,
I can see from your responses and the fact that my previous comments were deleted that this will never lead to any meaningful discussion.
"I told a Latino friend I work with what you said about him being highly insulated from the majority of the Latino population. Jose says to tell you he is highly offended by your assertion."
Your friend is ONE person. I did not state or claim that ALL Latinos viewed Republicans negatively. Your friend would be a perfect counter example to this fact. What was stated in this article is that 2 out of 3 Latino voters did NOT vote for Republicans. It is not claiming that ALL Latinos are voting against Republicans; but, on the contrary, it is stating that the voting population in this group is growing and that in a few years the number of Latinos not voting for Republicans will be large enough so that if Republicans continue to promote largely anti-Latino sentiments as expressed by "Republicans" in this article, they run the risk of not being elected. It is simple math that is running against this Republican strategy.
"Does this then mean that the violent crimes that went down are from illegal criminals on other illegals?"
Possibly, but as stated, the reasons/causes are not clear nor verifiable.
"I've also heard that violent crimes are in decline since Sheriff Arpaio began his sweeps."
There is no doubt that fear has swept certain segments of the population because of these sweeps. It's unfortunate that it's been more hot air on behalf of the Sheriff since his sweeps are truly not capturing the number of illegals as claimed for ALL the wasted manpower instead of focusing on addressing real crime issues. I'll grant you that this opinion is highly debated but I don't put lots of mustard on this Sheriff's efforts. The bad guys don't fear this guy as much as the Department of Public Safety or other law enforcement agencies that truly target the serious criminals.
"Only 34% of AZ Latinos voted republican? Are they all highly insulated from the majority of the Latino population?"
Nope... but they are not the majority and any one that can do addition will realize this. These numbers don't reflect the majority which is the real problem for future elections. This does not bode well for the GOP, which as I stated previously, is the reason for this article.
"Latinos will start seeing through the delusions of the wealth redistribution democrats."
What does this have to do with the article? Your bringing in extraneous issues that are not addressing the specific claims of this article. The Democrats are no better but the Republicans have hardly made it very welcoming for Latino voters either, and I can understand this completely, since they haven't had to in order to win here in Arizona. Again, I'll state the obvious, the article is claiming that this will have to change as the voting Latino population grows because Republicans won't be able to easily dismiss the 60% of Latinos that are not currently voting for them, because they won't win without them.
"By the time we have a democratic Latino governor, if we ever do, I'll most likely be smoldering in the ground somewhere. So who cares."
And finally you express your true colors. I didn't think it would take long since the points you argue in your comments don't address the voting dynamics that are being expressed in this article. Good luck to you.
AZMomma posted at 7:18 am on Tue, Nov 23, 2010.
Another "survey" skewed to prove the biased point of the people paying for it.
Reps or Dems...Anglo, Latino, Korean or South African...they all do it.
Stop jumping at "data" which is so clearly biased and is aimed at raising everyone's blood pressure.
ILLEGAL, Crime-affiliated people are the issue.
azrepublican posted at 9:54 pm on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
"However, there was a substantial drop in serious assaults following the announcement of the policy and the initiation of immigration checks at ADC in July 2007." "but we caution that some of this drop may have been due to a reduction in reporting of assaults by illegal immigrants." Does this then mean that the violent crimes that went down are from illegal criminals on other illegals? They then go on to say this may not be due to the policy. I read it and can see maybe they are right. I also see the numbers of declining violence. Maybe and maybe not, but the numbers don't lie. I've also heard that violent crimes are in decline since Sheriff Arpaio began his sweeps. Although no real figures have been tallied, advocates of the sweeps say their value is largely in discouraging illegal immigrants from remaining in the community. That can't be bad for anyone.
Only 34% of AZ Latinos voted republican? Are they all highly insulated from the majority of the Latino population? They are people who want a better life for themselves and see illegal immigration as an obstruction to that end. I think as time goes on more Latinos will start seeing through the delusions of the wealth redistribution democrats. In any case, this article is a prediction of the authors wishes and really nothing more. By the time we have a democratic Latino governor, if we ever do, I'll most likely be smoldering in the ground somewhere. So who cares.
abimopectore posted at 5:05 pm on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
azrepublican,
"I never heard any republicans say we need to fear illegal aliens"
I don't believe they do. The Republicans will state their position to create fear among the "voting public." This is the point in doing the things this way.
As for the study you cite, you should read all the minute details. However, I'll point you to page 81 which provides a quick summary of its findings:
"To summarize, we find that the policy has not affected most types of crime in PWC, in large part because illegal immigrants account for a small to modest share of offenders for most types of crime. However, there was a substantial drop in serious assaults following the announcement of the policy and the initiation of immigration checks at ADC in July 2007. We attribute this primarily to the publicity surrounding the adoption of the policy in its original form, but we caution that some of this drop may have been due to a reduction in reporting of assaults by illegal immigrants. That being said, the policy in its current form appears to be a reasonable way of targeting illegal immi- grants who are serious offenders—a policy goal on which there is broad agreement."
The above statement would contradict your statement, "so maybe we should fear illegal immigration," and it should compel to your revise your assessment of this statement since it's not apparent that the drop in crime is clearly understood.
"I know a lot of Hispanics and they are part of the greater Latino population here in AZ. They aren't insulated as you say. They hear their people quote their leaders that say republicans are white supremacist and racist, but they're smart enough to see how illegal immigration is hurting everyone including those Latinos born here. Seems to be that the born in America Latinos see things differently than the immigrant Latinos."
The statistics don't lie. The East Valley Tribune article above stated, "For the third straight cycle, Latinos preferred Democrats over Republicans by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, 64 percent to 34 percent, according to exit polling." So I don't which Latinos you're speaking with, but they aren't the majority. You're just not talking to most of them.
"There is ample evidence that shows the effect of unregulated illegal immigration that hurts us all."
There are problems no doubt, but I'll point you to the University of Virginia study you cited in your comment, because if you read it completely and can maintain an objective perspective, it's not what you're claiming in terms of "ample evidence." Here it is:
http://www.pwcgov.org/docLibrary/PDF/13188.pdf
"Latinos who do not know how to read or write English well and get all their info from what I see as racist leaders or who are listening to their socialistic professors spew redistribution of wealth lies, will never vote for republicans."
Again, I can only cite the statistical facts. The majority of Latinos, including educated ones as you state, ARE NOT voting for republicans. Finally, I don't believe that Latinos will be the voting majority for some time, hence you're not going to see candidates in the immediate future running on issues that affect solely Latinos; however, I do believe that Latinos will become the kingmakers in future elections because I don't believe a candidate will be able to win unless they capture a significant portion of this vote.
azrepublican posted at 4:37 pm on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
abimopectore I told a Latino friend I work with what you said about him being highly insulated from the majority of the Latino population. Jose says to tell you he is highly offended by your assertion. He also says he is unaware of a republican candidate who used anything but the truth concerning illegal immigration. He is a republican that supports anti illegal candidates, and he does not like seeing his state being over run by Mexicans. Please if you can show us evidence of fear tactics used by any candidate.
azrepublican posted at 4:14 pm on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
When whole campaigns are run on the premise of fear? I never heard any republicans say we need to fear illegal aliens, but a University of Virginia study found that, since Prince William County in Virginia became more strict in dealing with illegal immigrants in 2007, the jurisdiction has enjoyed a substantial drop in crime - including a 32 percent drop in violent crime - while neighboring Fairfax County has seen crime levels remain steady, so maybe we should fear illegal immigration.
I know a lot of Hispanics and they are part of the greater Latino population here in AZ. They aren't insulated as you say. They hear their people quote their leaders that say republicans are white supremacist and racist, but they're smart enough to see how illegal immigration is hurting everyone including those Latinos born here. Seems to be that the born in America Latinos see things differently than the immigrant Latinos.
Those unnecessary and unsubstantiated claims by those who practice the politics of fear in order to get your votes are not spewing lies as you suggest. There is ample evidence that shows the effect of unregulated illegal immigration that hurts us all.
Latinos who do not know how to read or write English well and get all their info from what I see as racist leaders or who are listening to their socialistic professors spew redistribution of wealth lies, will never vote for republicans.
As for the Latino population outpacing other groups you may have a point. Mexico has the highest rate of population growth in the world, and the only Latinos that have reversed that rate are well educated and wealthy enough to see the advantage of a smaller family. Those figures don't change when they cross the border. As to what the future holds, who knows.
abimopectore posted at 3:03 pm on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
azrepublican,
"The only difference between the republican party and Latinos is illegal immigration."
I beg to differ on this one. When whole campaigns are run on the premise of fear that enable folks to freely comment like they do on this board as well as other newspapers in Arizona, you'd realize that there is definitely a greater problem than what you're claiming.
"Every Latino that I know is against illegal immigration."
It's pretty obvious from your statement you're speaking to ones that are highly insulated from the majority of the Latino population. The statistics don't support your claim. I know plenty of Latinos that are highly educated that don't take the position you're stating. In fact, I would argue that they take a more nuanced approach that recognizes both sides of the issue and clearly understand the politics of fear that is creating unnecessary and unsubstantiated claims by those who practice the politics of fear in order to get your votes.
"The only people using fear as a tool to affect voting are democrats like US Senator Harry Reid. He fooled Nevada Latinos into thinking a republican senator would somehow be deleterious to them."
I think Angle did this to herself. Or better yet, I'll give you an article from where you can see that her own campaign did her in more than anything:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45463.html
Besides Angle had many more problems with Latinos then you're willing to admit. Here's another article that will enlighten you:
http://www.examiner.com/political-buzz-in-national/sharon-angle-manages-to-offend-latinos-asians-and-canadians-one-speech
"The only Latinos that need fear a republican majority are the ones in this country illegally."
Latinos don't fear Republicans. You're right about this. They just don't vote for them in the numbers they'll need in order to keep winning in Arizona in the not so distant future as clearly this article states, which was the point of the article by the way.
TruthSeeker posted at 12:26 pm on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
Why "ship them by UPS" when you can do it overnight by FedEx?
azrepublican posted at 11:06 am on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
abimopectore, I don't see your point at all. The only difference between the republican party and Latinos is illegal immigration, and Latinos are increasingly changing their minds about that issue. Every Latino that I know is against illegal immigration. They are not bigots. Educated Latinos can see the obvious dangers of the continuing illegal immigration. The only people using fear as a tool to affect voting are democrats like US Senator Harry Reid. He fooled Nevada Latinos into thinking a republican senator would somehow be deleterious to them. The only Latinos that need fear a republican majority are the ones in this country illegally.
abimopectore posted at 8:05 am on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
There can never be any constructive commentary about hispanics without negatively expressing thoughts that really do not address the crux of the article, which is that their voting preference will indubitably affect future elections regardless of the bigotry that is commonly used in Arizona politics. This is something that the Republican party or any party that utilizes fear and bigotry in order to get votes will have to address if it wishes to continue to remain in power.
AZMomma posted at 7:31 am on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
Stop the whine. Your own culture supports the very worst of human beings...the Coyotes, Cartels, the Sinaloas and the Zetas.
Your kids won't march to protest that Drop House or the 15 Illegals crammed into a van rolling on I-10, or the little girls sold (by parents) or kidnapped into prostitution. Instead you brainwash them with fantasies of an Azteca Nation and teach them to isolate themselves in their filthy, crime ridden barrios.
This is NOT a back street of Matamoras or Nogales.
Educated Latinos are welcome into all aspects of AMERICAN life. We just refuse to see your Mexican flag above the US one, or grant you one more right that the rest of us enjoy.
Poorman posted at 7:07 am on Mon, Nov 22, 2010.
It is a big problem or will be,they multiply like rabbits.And a lot of the politicos smooze them for the legal ones votes.