Nearly one out of four Arizonans consider themselves part of the “tea party’’ movement.
And they love Jan Brewer.
Scott Rasmussen, who runs Rasmussen Reports, said Thursday the 23 percent figure for tea party members in Arizona is about the highest of anywhere in the country.
In fact, he said, the national average is only about 16 percent.
Less clear, he said, is what that means for Arizona politics, now and in the future.
“Part of what has been driving the tea party movement has been a sense that no politicians are listening,’’ Rasmussen said.
Fred Solop, who chairs the Department of Politics and International Affairs at Northern Arizona University, said some of what makes it hard to calculate is that there is no clear, defined idea of what the tea party is — and what it takes to be a part of it.
“There is no formal membership,’’ Solop noted. “Anybody can say they’re a member of the movement.’’
What the figure from the Rasmussen Reports likely tracks, he said, is the heart of the anti-tax movement, people who will not support any increase. He noted that about 35 percent of people who went to the polls last month voted against Proposition 100, which had Brewer’s support and hiked the state sales tax by a penny for the next three years to help balance the budget.
What is clearer is that Republican candidates in particular cannot ignore such a large segment of the Arizona electorate.
Despite the tea party’s anti-tax stance, Brewer appears to have locked up their support. Rasmussen said 89 percent of those who identified themselves as members of the tea party support the incumbent’s re-election, with Terry Goddard picking up just 9 percent.
And while 61 percent of Arizonans say they’re not a part of the movement, that doesn’t necessarily help the Democratic challenger.
He is favored over Brewer in that group by a margin of just 47-42 percent, a figure that, with the survey’s 4.5 percent margin of error, makes it a statistical dead heat.
Rasmussen said politicians should watch the remaining 16 percent of Arizonans.
“We’ve found all across the country there’s a sizeable number of people who tell us they’re not sure they’re part of the tea party movement,’’ he said.
“A lot of those people like some of the ideas of what they hear of the tea party,’’ Rasmussen explained.
“But they’re a little concerned about some of what they see going on.’’
Rasmussen would not spell out exactly what he thinks those voters see that makes them a bit queasy about the movement.
“I’m just telling you what the numbers say,’’ he said.
The telephone survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Tuesday.
forkedlift1 posted at 2:45 pm on Mon, Jul 5, 2010.
Framing questions for desired results is something I'd been reading and hearing about regarding the credibility of these "Rasmussen polls." However, what cinched it for me, was Rasmussen's reported poll results, a question supposedly asked of X number of voters and taken shortly after the widely viewed one-hour hour televised debate between the four Republican primary candidates for governor: Martin, Brewer, Jette and Buz.
The Rasmussen question to those called provided only three names to choose from, did not provide Jette's name. It was a totally invalid poll. Jette is the one moderate Republican among the four, and was knowledgeable and articulate about the issues facing the state.
Polls such as those reported by Rasmussen that have a predetermined bias in the way questions are framed fall in the category of "push polls" -- the desired reported result being to influence voters to the pollster's point of view.
I maintain it will be a cold day in hell before ANY other state legislative body & governor enact a carbon copy of Arizona's SB 1070. Yet egg-on-their-face Arizona state politicians who enacted Arizona's abominable immigration law are trying to convince us that other states will do just that, always citing some nationwide Rasmussen poll.
I sure wish the press would cease reporting poll results it receives from Rasmussen. Their credibility is sorely lacking and their purpose evident.
wonderweenie posted at 1:38 pm on Sat, Jul 3, 2010.
That hag will ruin AZ more than it's already in the hold
allamer posted at 6:28 pm on Fri, Jul 2, 2010.
The elephant in the room that a lot of politicians won't deal with is the illegal alien invasion. Brewer and the Arizona legislature did deal with it.
ConstituentSam posted at 8:30 pm on Thu, Jul 1, 2010.
Rasmussen is a known republican poll, just look at the questions they ask.
My vote goes to the reasonable and rational guy that has actual plans - Goddard
stan000 posted at 5:15 pm on Thu, Jul 1, 2010.
Like Gov. Brewer? Not much but the rest of the folks running are far worse.
Once again the Republican primary is a who-sucks-less contest.